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العنوان
اقتصاديات تصنيع الفاكهة فى مصر /
المؤلف
عبدالواحد، أميره محيى فرحات.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / أميره محيى فرحات عبدالواحد
مشرف / صلاح محمود سعيد مقلد
مشرف / يسرى أحمد عبد الدايم
مناقش / على إبراهيم محمد
تاريخ النشر
2018.
عدد الصفحات
198 ص. :
اللغة
العربية
الدرجة
ماجستير
التخصص
علوم وتكنولوجيا الأغذية
تاريخ الإجازة
1/1/2018
مكان الإجازة
جامعة عين شمس - كلية الزراعة - قسم الاقتصاد الزراعى
الفهرس
يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام

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from 198

المستخلص

SUMMARY
Introduction
The problem of the study was that Egypt enjoys a distinct geographic location which gives it a comparative advantage in producing fruit crops. In the last three decades of the twentieth century, Egypt has adopted some policies at the local and international levels aimed at supporting and developing the agricultural sector in general, Especially the fruit manufacturing sector in the hope of achieving a desired balance of trade and agricultural, which is reflected in turn on the balance of the Egyptian payments.
However, the question posed by the study is whether it is possible to get benefit of Egypt’s comparative advantage in fruit production, and what are the most important determinants and variables local and global most influential in the fruit industry at recent days, to help policy makers take such determinants into consideration.
In the statistical analysis, the study relied on the method of descriptive analysis, such as averages and percentages also, the method of quantitative analysis, such as general trend equations, and some Egyptian competitiveness criteria in the most important foreign markets have been used. In addition to the use of the SWOT analysis model, the policy analysis matrix, as well as the use of the linear equation model to measure the effect of the most important economic variables on fruit manufacturing in Egypt using the IFOIS program.
In order to achieve the study objectives, the study divided into four chapters. The first chapter dealt with the review of literature and the theoretical framework of the study in two sections.
First: Section One (Review of Literature)
The most important studies affecting the economics of fruit manufacturing were reviewed in three parts, it was found that:
Part I (Studies on the production and percentage of losses of fruit crops)
It was found that the increase of the cultivated area of fruit crops and increase the percentage of losses in these crops. The increase in the percentage of losses in these crops due to several factors, the most important one is the circulation of these products lead to a large percentage of them up to 30%: 40% because of these crops contain high percentage of moisture.
Part II (Studies on the marketing and exporting of fresh and manufactured fruit crops)
It was found that despite the expansion of the European Union, Egypt’s fruit exports have been volatile, even though it is a partner of the Arab Republic of Egypt. It also, found that in the last decade alone, the value of orange exports has grown to about 40% of the value of fresh fruit exports.
Part III: Results of studies on the economics of fruit manufacturing:
1. It was clarified that the efficiency of employing investment in food manufacturing activities is high, and the productivity of the worker in the industry is higher than in the agriculture, as if the worker’s transition from agriculture to industry leads to increasing the output, especially in the case of convincing unemployment in agriculture, since small enterprises such as juices and jams have an economic advantage compared to large projects in food manufacturing.
2. Some studies showed the little quantities of fruits oriented for manufacturing achieved 3.2% in citrus, 9.9% in grapes, 28.3% in guava and 108% in mango in the total production of the republic.
3. The cost of packaging and packaging materials represents 54.6% of the total variable costs of Edfina company.
4. The cost of canning represents 47% of the cost of producing juices, 31% of the cost of production of jams and 32% of the cost of production of canned fruit whereas the foreign component in the cost of canning represents about 85% of the total cost.
Second: Section Two (Theoretical Framework)
The study dealt with some of the definitions and terms related to the subject of the study, in addition to a brief description of fruit manufacturing and its development, in addition to addressing some of the concepts relevant to food manufacturing, as well as a look at the most important methods used in food manufacturing processes, production power for food manufacturing factories and methods of estimating cost functions.
The second chapter dealt with the economic analysis of the production of some fruit crops, the development of cultivated areas for some fruit crops.
Three sections were included in this chapter. The first section dealt with the current production situation of some fruit crops in Egypt whereas the second section examined the margins and marketing efficiency of the main fruit crops under study, the competitiveness of Egyptian manufactured fruit and the most important foreign markets.
The first section also deals with the analysis of the SWAT model and the PAM matrix to find the comparative advantage, the most important points of strengths, points of weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing fruit processing.
The second section showed the recent increase in cultivated areas of fruit crops and the increased production of fruit crops.
The third section showed that the cost of local resources for fruit manufacturing is less than the cost of production at the international price, which means the presence of relative advantage of fruit production locally, even though the points of weaknesses related to the manufacturing of fruit, but the points of strengths managed it. This lead to encourage fruit manufacturing sector and the flow of investments.
Chapter Three The technical and economic aspects of fruit production in Egypt
The first section dealt with the economic analysis of the development of the production of food industries based on the manufacture of fruit in Egypt. It was shown the value of the food industries based on the production of fruit manufacturing at constant prices during the period (2002 - 2012), which amounted to about 3,970,498 million pounds in (2001-2002) increased to about 11,457,172 million pounds in (2011-2012), with an increase of about 46%. By studying the general trend equation it was shown that the value of production of food industries has taken the quadratic form, which indicates that the trend of the value of production from the fruit-based food industries at constant prices downwards in the first period until (2004-2005) and reaching the minimum output value with a value of 41,020,850 million pounds, and then its trend afterwards tending to increase with statistically significant rates during the period (2005 - 2006 : 2011 - 2012). Thus the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.89. This meant that 89% of the changes in the value of food production at current prices are due to several factors the time element reflect their effects. The significant of the equation as a whole has been achieved. With respect to the value of food production at current prices during the period (2002-2012), which amounted to about 3,970,498 million pounds in year (2001-2002), increased to about 11,457,172 million pounds, with an increase of about 51%. In the study of the general trend equation, it was shown that the value of production of food industries took the quadratic form, which indicated that the direction of the value of production from the fruit-based food industries at current prices went downward in the first period until (2005-2006) and the value of production achieved its minimum with a value about 41,020,850 million pounds, and then its trend afterwards tending to increase with statistically significant rates during the period (2006 - 2007 : 2011 - 2012), Thus the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.92, which means that 92% of the changes in the value of production of food materials at the current prices due to several factors the time element reflect their effects. The significance of the equation as a whole has been established.
The second section dealt with production costs of some manufactured fruit varieties (A.R.E). The results revealed that the significance of this function for small categories. The value of the coefficient of determination was about 0.75%. this meant that 75% of the changes occurred in the total costs are due to changes in the quantity produced from it. Using the function to obtain some economic derivatives, it was possible to estimate the optimum size of the production which achieve the lowest cost of the unit produced from the juice (which is achieved at the lower end of the average total costs) and when equating the marginal costs with the average costs, it was achieved at a production level of 4.6 tons for this category of manufacturing firms. It also found that there are two firms among the total sum of that category working in the economic stage, while the average productivity of this category was 3.9 tons, i.e. less than the optimal size of production and this shows that the production is in the first phase. By differentiating the function to obtain the marginal and equating to the price, it was clarified that the optimum size which maximizes the profit in that category was about 2.65 tons.
In the mean category the coefficient of determination was 0.68, meaning that 68% of the changes occurred in total costs due to changes in the quantity produced from it. In the estimation of the optimum size of production which give the lowest cost for the productive unit, it was achieved at a production level of 7.3 tons for this category, and found that 1 producer out of the total producers of that category working in the economic phase, while the average productivity of this category was about 6.8 tons, i.e. less than the optimum size of production. This shows the production in the first stage, and the optimum size which maximizes profit in that category was about 6.5 tons for the firm. To get the elasticity of the production costs, the marginal costs were divided by the average of the total costs which estimated at 0.38 indicating that the production of the juice is done in the first stage of the production stages. The significance of the function is confirmed for the large categories. The value of coefficient of determination was about 0.62 which meant that 0.62 of changes occurred in the total costs is due to changes in the quantity produced from it. In the estimation of the optimum size of production at the minimum cost of the unit produced, which was achieved at a production level of 13.3 tons for this category. It was found that there are 2 producers out of the total producers of that category working in the economic stage, while the average productivity of this category was 11.5 tons, which was less than the optimum size of production. This showed that production in the first stage, and the optimum size which maximizes profit in that category is about 11.6 tons for the firm. To estimate the elasticity of production costs, the marginal costs were divided by the average of the total costs which estimated at 0.47 indicating that the production of juice is in the first stage of production in the long term. The significance of the relation which was statistically estimated was verified. It was also shown that the coefficient of determination was about 0.80 which meant that 0.80 of the changes occurred in the total costs are referred to the changes in the quantity produced from the juices, for the estimates obtained from the quadratic form, the optimum size of the production achieved at the minimum cost of production at the production level of 17.4 tons, whereas the production level of 12.6 tons achieved the maximized profit. To calculate the elasticity of production costs, the marginal costs were divided by the average of the total costs which estimated at 0.83 indicating that the production of juices is done in the third stage of production. It is worth mentioning that the average production of the firm was about .......... less than the optimal size of production showing that production was in the second stage.
Chapter Four It deals with the economic analysis of the determinants of the manufacturing of some fruit crops in the light of contemporary variables using the model of current equations
The estimated equations indicate elasticity, which is as follows:
First, the increase in the average consumption per capita of fruit and the increase per capita in fruit production by 1% led to an increase in the exports of manufactured fruit by 3.21, 0.75 and 0.33, while the increase in the average of factory price and the increase of the import price of fruit by 1% made the average export per capita of fruit decreased by a percentage of 0.75 and 0.35 respectively, which is consistent with economic theory and logic. The results also revealed that about 56% of the changes in fruit exports are due to the variables studied.
Second, the increase in per capita export price, the increase in average per capita agricultural investment, and the increase in per capita production by 1% lead to an increase in the consumption of manufactured fruit by percentage of 0.02, 0.014, 0.15, while the increase in the average of factory price and the increase in the fruit production price, resulted in a decrease in the per capita average of fruit exports by percentage of 0.288, 0.012 respectively, which is consistent with economic theory and logic. The results showed that about 48% of the changes in fruit exports are due to the variables studied.
Third, the increase in the average of production of manufactured fruits per capita fruit and the increase in per capita consumption by 1% led to a decline in the importation of manufactured fruits by percentage of 7.053, 0.09, 0.33, while increasing the average production of manufactured fruit, increasing the price of fruit importation by 1% led to decline in the average per capita imports of fruits by 0.04 and 1.13 respectively. This is agree with the theory and economic logic. The results showed that about 62% of the changes in fruit exports are due to the variables studied.
Fourth: Increasing the average of agricultural investment per capita and increasing the average number of workers in the fruit manufacturing sector by 1% would increase the production of manufactured fruit by a percentage of 1.50, 0.80, 0.09, while increasing the average factory price, increase in the price of fruit production by a percentage of 1% declined the average per capita of fruit production by 3.39 and 0.23 respectively, which is consistent with economic theory and logic. The results also showed that about 42% of the changes in fruit exports are due to the variables studied.